A wiki on publicly traded companies to manage exposure.

A pure play is a publicly traded company that carries the same risk factors as a private investment you already hold. Short the pure play and if the shared risk materializes — the event that sinks your private holding also sinks the public one — your hedge pays off. These 30 portfolios group 2,301 companies from 2019 SEC filings by the risks they share, so you can find the pure-play hedge for whatever private exposure you carry.

30Risk Portfolios
2,301Companies
2019Pre-Pandemic Baseline
ISO 31010Methodology

Why 2019 data?

These risk profiles are built from pre-COVID 10-K filings. After 2020, nearly every company added "pandemic" as a top risk factor, flattening the signal. The 2019 baseline is a cleaner picture of the structural risks that actually distinguish one business from another.

The 30 Risk Portfolios

Cross Impact Analysis168 cos.

Client-Concentration Digital Commerce

Software and e-commerce platforms dependent on handful of large clients; revenue cliff risk if key contracts lapse.

clientsinternetclientsoftware
Risk-Theme Prevalence167 cos.

Raw Material Cost Pass-Through Cyclicals

Manufacturers dependent on commodity input costs face margin compression when unable to pass price increases to price-sensitive, cyclical customers.

rawraw materialsmaterialsenvironmental
Risk-Theme Prevalence129 cos.

Federal Defense Contractor Concentration Risk

Companies deriving 49–99% of revenue from DoD/federal contracts face shared exposure to government budget, policy, and relationship disruption.

sharescontractsdirectorscontract
Risk-Theme Prevalence125 cos.

Semiconductor Equipment Supply-Chain Cyclicals

Companies exposed to semiconductor capex cycles, customer concentration, and manufacturing lead-time volatility.

componentsmanufacturingintellectualintellectual property
Risk-Theme Prevalence125 cos.

Enterprise Software Sales-Cycle Volatility

Long-duration B2B software licensing with unpredictable enterprise buying cycles and revenue recognition timing risk.

softwareintellectualintellectual propertysoftware products
Risk-Theme Prevalence123 cos.

Patent Moat Erosion & R&D Execution Risk

Manufacturing and specialty-products firms face simultaneous threats from IP vulnerability, R&D productivity uncertainty, and regulatory compliance complexity.

rawbelievesraw materialsmanufacturing
Bow Tie Analysis118 cos.

Clinical-Trial Binary Outcomes

Pre-revenue biotech firms dependent on FDA approval and milestone funding; shared risk of trial failure, capital depletion, and dilutive financing.

clinicaltrialsclinical trialsfda
Ishikawa (Fishbone)116 cos.

Office REIT Cyclical Downturn Exposure

REITs vulnerable to white-collar employment collapse, rent compression, and tenant flight in office real estate.

reitpropertiesqualify reittenants
Risk-Theme Prevalence111 cos.

Leveraged Cyclicals with Covenant Pressure

Capital-intensive manufacturers and commodity producers vulnerable to cash-flow collapse and covenant breach when demand cycles down.

indebtednesscovenantsfacilitycredit facility
Bow Tie Analysis88 cos.

Consumer Fashion Retail Demand Volatility

Apparel and specialty retailers exposed to unpredictable consumer preference shifts and comparable-store sales swings.

storesmerchandisestorenew stores
Risk-Theme Prevalence86 cos.

Reimbursement-Gated Surgical Device Makers

Medical device companies whose profitability hinges on third-party payer coverage decisions and FDA regulatory clearance timelines.

fdamedicaldevicedevices
Cross Impact Analysis82 cos.

Regional Bank Net-Interest-Margin Compression

Community and regional banks exposed to interest-rate volatility, loan-loss deterioration, and deposit-funding pressure.

loansloandepositsbanking
Bow Tie Analysis69 cos.

Fabless Semiconductor M&A Integration Risk

Acquisition-dependent fabless chip designers facing integration execution risk and foundry capacity volatility.

semiconductormanufacturingwafersemiconductor industry
Ishikawa (Fishbone)69 cos.

Government Reimbursement Rate Sensitivity

Healthcare providers whose revenue and margins depend critically on Medicare/Medicaid rate schedules and commercial payor rate cascades.

medicaremedicaidcarehealthcare
Risk-Theme Prevalence68 cos.

Commodity Price Exposure Upstream Producers

Oil and gas explorers whose cash flow, reserves replacement, and debt capacity all hinge on commodity price levels.

gasoilnatural gasoil gas
Bow Tie Analysis67 cos.

Fashion Trend Obsolescence & Supply Concentration

Consumer apparel/footwear brands face dual risk: rapid fashion cycle death and raw-material supply bottlenecks.

brandsapparelconsumerretail
Risk-Theme Prevalence62 cos.

Regulatory Capital & Policyholder Protection

Property-casualty insurers exposed to state-level regulatory intervention, capital adequacy mandates, and coverage-expansion litigation.

reinsurancepolicyholdersinsurance subsidiariesreinsurers
Cross Impact Analysis62 cos.

Regional Bank Geographic Concentration

Community banks whose loan portfolios and deposit bases are hostage to single-state or metro-area economic cycles.

loansloandepositsloan losses
Risk-Theme Prevalence60 cos.

Commodity Cyclicals & Infrastructure Spending

Portfolio of companies whose revenues depend on commodity prices, municipal budgets, and exploration activity—all highly cyclical and weather-sensitive.

gasexplorationoildrilling
Cross Impact Analysis50 cos.

Regulatory Leverage Telecom Squeeze

Regional telecom operators face simultaneous debt burden, subscriber erosion, and FCC reregulation—a perfect hedge for private telecom holdings.

wirelessfcctelephonenetwork
Bow Tie Analysis49 cos.

Interest-Rate & Credit Cycle Banking

Deposit-funded lenders exposed to Fed policy, mortgage/consumer credit cycles, and deposit flight risk.

loansloanlendingportfolio
Risk-Theme Prevalence48 cos.

Midstream Energy Volume & Commodity Exposure

Midstream operators whose cash flows collapse when hydrocarbon production, prices, or transport volumes decline.

gasnatural gasfercenergy
Ishikawa (Fishbone)48 cos.

Professional Services Fee Compression

Financial advisory and asset management firms whose revenues collapse when transaction volumes fall or market valuations decline.

clientsclientprofessionalsfirms
Cross Impact Analysis45 cos.

Regional CRE Concentration & Collateral Risk

Community banks with concentrated commercial real estate exposure in single geographic markets face correlated default and collateral-value risk.

loansloanloan lossesdeposits
Risk-Theme Prevalence45 cos.

Fuel-Exposed Trucking Cyclicals

Truckload carriers vulnerable to fuel-price shocks, driver scarcity, and freight-rate compression in a competitive, capacity-heavy market.

fuelfuel pricesdriverstransportation
Cross Impact Analysis38 cos.

Restaurant Expansion & Labor Cost Cyclicals

Casual-dining chains vulnerable to unit-growth execution failures, labor inflation, and same-store sales cannibalization.

restaurantsrestaurantfranchiseesfood
Bow Tie Analysis29 cos.

Broadcast-Network Affiliation Dependency

Broadcast stations whose cash flow and ratings hinge on maintaining favorable network affiliation agreements and programming supply.

stationsfccbroadcastprogramming
Bow Tie Analysis24 cos.

Mortgage-Rate Sensitive Homebuilders

Residential builders whose profitability and unit sales move inversely with interest rates and mortgage availability.

landhomebuildinghomeshousing
Risk-Theme Prevalence19 cos.

FDA Approval Bottleneck Generics

Generic and branded pharma exposed to FDA approval delays, patent cliffs, and post-launch generic competition compression.

genericpharmaceuticalfdadrug
Cross Impact Analysis11 cos.

Manufactured Housing Cyclical Credit Crunch

Manufacturers and retailers of manufactured homes face synchronized downturns when consumer lending tightens and inventory floods the market.

manufactured housinghomeshousingmanufactured