A wiki on publicly traded companies to manage exposure.
A pure play is a publicly traded company that carries the same risk factors as a private investment you already hold. Short the pure play and if the shared risk materializes — the event that sinks your private holding also sinks the public one — your hedge pays off. These 30 portfolios group 2,301 companies from 2019 SEC filings by the risks they share, so you can find the pure-play hedge for whatever private exposure you carry.
Why 2019 data?
These risk profiles are built from pre-COVID 10-K filings. After 2020, nearly every company added "pandemic" as a top risk factor, flattening the signal. The 2019 baseline is a cleaner picture of the structural risks that actually distinguish one business from another.
The 30 Risk Portfolios
Client-Concentration Digital Commerce
Software and e-commerce platforms dependent on handful of large clients; revenue cliff risk if key contracts lapse.
Raw Material Cost Pass-Through Cyclicals
Manufacturers dependent on commodity input costs face margin compression when unable to pass price increases to price-sensitive, cyclical customers.
Federal Defense Contractor Concentration Risk
Companies deriving 49–99% of revenue from DoD/federal contracts face shared exposure to government budget, policy, and relationship disruption.
Semiconductor Equipment Supply-Chain Cyclicals
Companies exposed to semiconductor capex cycles, customer concentration, and manufacturing lead-time volatility.
Enterprise Software Sales-Cycle Volatility
Long-duration B2B software licensing with unpredictable enterprise buying cycles and revenue recognition timing risk.
Patent Moat Erosion & R&D Execution Risk
Manufacturing and specialty-products firms face simultaneous threats from IP vulnerability, R&D productivity uncertainty, and regulatory compliance complexity.
Clinical-Trial Binary Outcomes
Pre-revenue biotech firms dependent on FDA approval and milestone funding; shared risk of trial failure, capital depletion, and dilutive financing.
Office REIT Cyclical Downturn Exposure
REITs vulnerable to white-collar employment collapse, rent compression, and tenant flight in office real estate.
Leveraged Cyclicals with Covenant Pressure
Capital-intensive manufacturers and commodity producers vulnerable to cash-flow collapse and covenant breach when demand cycles down.
Consumer Fashion Retail Demand Volatility
Apparel and specialty retailers exposed to unpredictable consumer preference shifts and comparable-store sales swings.
Reimbursement-Gated Surgical Device Makers
Medical device companies whose profitability hinges on third-party payer coverage decisions and FDA regulatory clearance timelines.
Regional Bank Net-Interest-Margin Compression
Community and regional banks exposed to interest-rate volatility, loan-loss deterioration, and deposit-funding pressure.
Fabless Semiconductor M&A Integration Risk
Acquisition-dependent fabless chip designers facing integration execution risk and foundry capacity volatility.
Government Reimbursement Rate Sensitivity
Healthcare providers whose revenue and margins depend critically on Medicare/Medicaid rate schedules and commercial payor rate cascades.
Commodity Price Exposure Upstream Producers
Oil and gas explorers whose cash flow, reserves replacement, and debt capacity all hinge on commodity price levels.
Fashion Trend Obsolescence & Supply Concentration
Consumer apparel/footwear brands face dual risk: rapid fashion cycle death and raw-material supply bottlenecks.
Regulatory Capital & Policyholder Protection
Property-casualty insurers exposed to state-level regulatory intervention, capital adequacy mandates, and coverage-expansion litigation.
Regional Bank Geographic Concentration
Community banks whose loan portfolios and deposit bases are hostage to single-state or metro-area economic cycles.
Commodity Cyclicals & Infrastructure Spending
Portfolio of companies whose revenues depend on commodity prices, municipal budgets, and exploration activity—all highly cyclical and weather-sensitive.
Regulatory Leverage Telecom Squeeze
Regional telecom operators face simultaneous debt burden, subscriber erosion, and FCC reregulation—a perfect hedge for private telecom holdings.
Interest-Rate & Credit Cycle Banking
Deposit-funded lenders exposed to Fed policy, mortgage/consumer credit cycles, and deposit flight risk.
Midstream Energy Volume & Commodity Exposure
Midstream operators whose cash flows collapse when hydrocarbon production, prices, or transport volumes decline.
Professional Services Fee Compression
Financial advisory and asset management firms whose revenues collapse when transaction volumes fall or market valuations decline.
Regional CRE Concentration & Collateral Risk
Community banks with concentrated commercial real estate exposure in single geographic markets face correlated default and collateral-value risk.
Fuel-Exposed Trucking Cyclicals
Truckload carriers vulnerable to fuel-price shocks, driver scarcity, and freight-rate compression in a competitive, capacity-heavy market.
Restaurant Expansion & Labor Cost Cyclicals
Casual-dining chains vulnerable to unit-growth execution failures, labor inflation, and same-store sales cannibalization.
Broadcast-Network Affiliation Dependency
Broadcast stations whose cash flow and ratings hinge on maintaining favorable network affiliation agreements and programming supply.
Mortgage-Rate Sensitive Homebuilders
Residential builders whose profitability and unit sales move inversely with interest rates and mortgage availability.
FDA Approval Bottleneck Generics
Generic and branded pharma exposed to FDA approval delays, patent cliffs, and post-launch generic competition compression.
Manufactured Housing Cyclical Credit Crunch
Manufacturers and retailers of manufactured homes face synchronized downturns when consumer lending tightens and inventory floods the market.